WRITING ABOUT WILDLIFE<\/span><\/strong> in the West can feel, at times, like writing an extended obituary for species headed to hospice. Much of the West Coast banned ocean fishing<\/a> for king salmon this season because of low stocks. Mule deer numbers suffer from drought<\/a> and fragmented range. Pronghorn are dropping dead from deep snow<\/a> and disease<\/a>. Whitebark pine\u2014a main food source for grizzly bears\u2014just landed on the endangered species list<\/a>.<\/p>\n Released in mid-March<\/a>, the newest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u00a0says wildlife struggles will only continue, and could worsen, if we don\u2019t take more action. Of the planet\u2019s roughly 8 million species, scientists estimate at least 15,000<\/a> are currently threatened with extinction. \u00a0<\/p>\n But even with that picture, it\u2019s not actually all doom and gloom. The planet will continue spinning, many of us will continue wandering over it, and even some of our most beloved wild game species will likely, at least in the near term, be OK. Some may even do well.<\/p>\n Exactly how well, or how badly, is one of the toughest ecological questions to answer right now, says Matthew Kauffman, leader of the U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at the University of Wyoming.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s been really hard for researchers to pinpoint the effects of climate change because environmental variability in general is hard to really quantify,\u201d he says. And finding those answers requires long-term studies that show how wildlife responds to droughts, hard winters, floods, fires, and other big changes.<\/p>\n Which animals survive will also likely vary from one place to another. Black bears in Arkansas, for instance, may well have a very different future than black bears in New Mexico. But one thing is for certain, according to researchers: No matter what happens with climate change, if wildlife doesn\u2019t have habitat to survive\u2014if we\u2019ve fenced across, drained, ditched, subdivided, and developed all our lands and waters\u2014many of the planet\u2019s wild critters won\u2019t survive regardless of whether we curb carbon emissions or not.<\/p>\n So what does this mean for the animals we hunt and fish? The ones we rely on for our food and lifestyle? Which ones are most likely to survive and adapt or go the way of the dodo? We break down the latest research and best guesses about the species you care about most.<\/p>\n Outlook: <\/strong>Declining<\/p>\n Mule deer across the West aren\u2019t doing well<\/a>. Herds are languishing well below historic highs in states like Wyoming, Colorado, and California<\/a>. Their winter and transition ranges are being drilled, roaded, fenced, and subdivided. Invasive species like cheatgrass are outcompeting more nutrient-rich food and creating bigger, more frequent fires. Add in drought and diseases like chronic wasting disease, and researchers are more than a little worried about their future.<\/p>\n Climate change, unfortunately, is yet one more challenge, says Kauffman. Drier summers lead to shorter growing seasons, which leads to less food available for deer.<\/p>\n \u201cThe big unknown here is what is going to happen with winter conditions,\u201d Kauffman says, adding that even heavy-snow winters like the one portions of the West are experiencing right now won\u2019t likely be enough to make up for less food in the summers.<\/p>\n But Kaufmann also says it\u2019s not too late for mule deer, at least not in the near term.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s an idea out there [called] the \u2018portfolio effect,\u2019 like the stock market,\u201d he says. \u201cYou want to have your funds in a lot of accounts because you don\u2019t know which ones will win or lose.\u201d<\/p>\n Many mule deer migrate long distances to take advantage of what researchers call the \u201cgreen wave\u201d of plants growing in the spring and summer. Some mule deer migrate shorter distances and others don\u2019t migrate at all. Maintaining those connected corridors<\/a> may be their best hope for a sustainable future in a changing world.<\/p>\n Outlook:<\/strong> Stable for now<\/p>\n Even as some of the West\u2019s most iconic mule deer herds are suffering, North America\u2019s elk are thriving. Most populations in states like Wyoming exceed the herd target numbers. Colorado has more than 280,000 elk<\/a>, and Montana has more than 140,000<\/a> which, according to Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, is over the state\u2019s objective too. Even reintroduced elk populations in the eastern U.S. are thriving<\/a>.<\/p>\n Why? Largely because of their adaptability, says Bob Lanka, president-elect of The Wildlife Society<\/a>. Elk can eat\u2014and process\u2014a wide variety of foods. Their big bodies also help them weather bad winters better than mule deer or pronghorn.<\/p>\n But they\u2019re not out of the woods when it comes to climate change, Kauffman cautions. As varied as their gut biome may be, which allows them to eat anything from grass to shrubs<\/a>, they will also be susceptible to the same drought and poor growing conditions as mule deer and pronghorn. A 2013 study<\/a> near Yellowstone National Park showed that when food is limited by drought, elk don\u2019t reproduce as frequently. They may hang in longer than mule deer or pronghorn, but if the West continues to warm up and dry out, even elk won\u2019t escape the negative impacts.<\/p>\n Outlook:<\/strong> Stable for now<\/p>\n Ducks and geese need water, and right now,<\/a> many of them have just what they need. In fact, the 2022 State of the Birds Report by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative showed that \u201cbirds are declining overall in every habitat except wetlands.\u201d<\/a> That means waterfowl are, for now, in pretty good shape.<\/p>\n But the future of ducks and geese is still in peril. So much so, in fact, that the country\u2019s largest waterfowl advocacy group is raising the alarm.<\/p>\n According to the Ducks Unlimited website<\/a>, \u201cMost major waterfowl habitats in North America face potentially significant, detrimental impacts from the effects of climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n The Prairie Pothole Region and Western boreal forests, where much of the nation\u2019s migratory waterfowl breeds, could face drought and other unpredictable weather cycles that will hurt or even stop reproduction.<\/p>\n Sea level rises threaten wintering grounds on coastal marshes. California\u2019s Central Valley, where Pacific Flyway birds overwinter, could continue to dry.<\/p>\n Even snow geese, one of North America\u2019s most abundant waterfowl, could see its breeding range cut by 53 percent if temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees C; by 73 percent with a 2 degree change, and up to 97 percent with a 3 degree change, according to the American Bird Conservancy<\/a>.<\/p>\n But this isn\u2019t a foregone conclusion. As with many other species, habitat work and wetlands restoration can help soften these blows.<\/p>\n And there are always Canada geese.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you want a species that will probably be OK, it is Canada geese,\u201d says Joe Genzel, communications coordinator for DU\u2019s Great Lakes and Atlantic region. \u201cThey really are the most adaptive species out of all waterfowl.\u201d<\/p>\n Outlook: <\/strong>Stable<\/p>\n For decades, grizzly bears have been making headlines in the fight over their need for federal protections. Meanwhile, the American black bear has been slowly\u2014and in some cases not so slowly\u2014expanding its range. Arkansas wildlife officials reintroduced the bears in the \u201950s and \u201960s and the state now has thousands of bears<\/a> spilling into neighboring Missouri. North Carolina hunters killed 3,748 in 2020 and 3,659 in 2021<\/a>. Hunters in Maine harvested 3,779 bears in 2021<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cBlack bears are highly, highly adaptable,\u201d says Mark Ditmer, a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station who spent years studying black bears in northern Minnesota. \u201cWhen they had natural food shortages, they moved into more anthropogenic areas with food crops.\u201d<\/p>\n In other words, when bears couldn\u2019t find wild foods, they ate crops\u2014lots of them. They ate so much corn in some areas that black bear reproduction rates went up<\/a>.<\/p>\n They will, however, likely struggle in portions of the West and Southwest as drought makes food scarcer. Hungry bears tend to move closer to humans to look for food, which will likely cause more interactions with humans that don\u2019t end well for bears. A paper published in Nature Climate Change<\/em> in February details the increase in conflict among species like black bears<\/a> as drought continues to worsen because of climate change.<\/p>\n But even with less food and more conflict in some areas, black bears won\u2019t disappear, Ditmer says. They\u2019ll likely just rely more on orchards and irrigated areas, places where diverted water creates artificial food sources. And in those parts of the country where habitat exists and plenty of rain falls? They\u2019ll be just fine.<\/p>\n Outlook:<\/strong> Increasing<\/p>\n For big-game species facing climate change, it\u2019s good to be a whitetail deer. The species already dominates many of its native ranges and has been expanding into new ones. They\u2019re expanding so far into Canada, in fact, that biologists are worried about \u201cecological consequences for entire biotic communities,\u201d according to a 2020 paper published in the journal Scientific Reports<\/em>.<\/p>\n Whitetails do well in mild winters, in dense areas, and in places where humans live. They are also able to take advantage of longer growing seasons in areas like the Midwest, East, and portions of Canada.<\/p>\n In a PLOS ONE<\/em> paper published on the future of whitetails<\/a> in the Adirondacks, authors argue that climate change will create such favorable winters for deer that managers need to mitigate the impact of disease and increased competition with moose. Fewer severe winters also means more surviving whitetails, since more of them die during hard winters, particularly in northern latitudes.<\/p>\n Outlook:<\/strong> Varies by location<\/p>\n Wild turkeys are struggling. Many of their issues<\/a> stem largely from habitat changes like loss of hardwood and a lack of active forest management; these hurt reproduction and create better conditions for predators (including humans).<\/p>\n What climate change means for turkeys is a little hard to know right now, says Michael Chamberlain, the Terrell Distinguished Professor of Wildlife Ecology and Management at the University of Georgia and a national turkey expert. But some recent work shows climate change could actually benefit wild turkeys.<\/p>\n \u201cIt may allow them to nest earlier in the spring as conditions warm, and earlier nests are more successful than later nests,\u201d he wrote in an email to Outdoor Life<\/em>.<\/p>\n Exactly how this will play out, and if it will work this way everywhere, is still unclear, but researchers are looking for answers.<\/p>\n \u201cI suspect the effects will vary from one part of the species\u2019 range to another,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n Outlook:<\/strong> Increasing<\/p>\n Say what you want about coyotes, but whatever the climate throws at them, they\u2019ll probably be just fine. Coyotes have expanded their range across most of North America, often occupying areas formerly guarded by wolves. They range everywhere from the Mexican desert to the Alaskan tundra to urban areas like Chicago and New York, says Joey Hinton, a senior research scientist at the Wolf Conservation Center in New York.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re the right size. They\u2019re not too big or too small,\u201d Hinton says. \u201cSo they can feed on deer or other large ungulates, and when those are not available, coyotes will switch to small prey and, if needed, even feed on fruit.\u201d<\/p>\n Larger carnivores like wolves can eat smaller prey, but they end up expending unsustainable amounts of energy to do that.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s like driving an 8-cylinder truck and stopping every 10 miles to put a little gas in the tank,\u201d Hinton says.<\/p>\n And because coyotes require less food, they occupy smaller territories, which means more coyotes can live in one place. A 500-square-kilometer area, for example, could fit about 20 to 30 coyote packs but perhaps only five wolf packs. If you go in and kill a third of those predators, the wolves would suffer more than the coyotes. Coyotes would readjust, sending juveniles out into newly unoccupied spots to reestablish populations.<\/p>\n \u201cCollectively, we kill the hell out of coyotes,\u201d Hinton says. \u201cThey are better adjusted to human-caused mortality than wolves are.\u201d<\/p>\n Outlook:<\/strong> Declining<\/p>\n Ruffed grouse have declined between 50 and 70 percent across their entire range in the last few decades, says Benjamin Jones, CEO of the Ruffed Grouse Society and American Woodcock Society. They\u2019re listed as a species of greatest conservation need in 19 state wildlife action plans.<\/p>\n To survive, ruffed grouse need access to high-elevation forests of varied ages\u2014everything from relatively new, young forests where they can spend time in fall and winter to old forests where they can nest in spring. Much of their range across the country\u2019s eastern and midwestern forests is now single-age forests. Those can be fixed, Jones says. It\u2019s hard work, but active forest management can bring back mixed ages.<\/p>\n Warming temperatures are also a big concern, creating a welcome environment for the Culex<\/em> mosquito, which carries the deadly West Nile virus, which ruffed grouse are particularly susceptible to. As warming increases, so do Culex <\/em>populations, and they head deeper into grouse range and higher into the mountains until ultimately, Jones fears, there will be nowhere else for ruffed grouse to retreat to.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s hope\u00a0that grouse can persist\u00a0where\u00a0there\u2019s good\u00a0habitat and that habitat is well-connected,\u201d Jones says. \u201cBut it\u2019s for naught if the current climate projections go as they are.\u201d<\/p>\n Read more\u00a0OL+<\/a>\u00a0stories.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nMule Deer<\/h2>\n
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Elk<\/h2>\n
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Waterfowl<\/h2>\n
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Black Bears<\/h2>\n
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Whitetail Deer<\/h2>\n
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Wild Turkeys<\/h2>\n
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Coyotes<\/h2>\n
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Ruffed Grouse<\/h2>\n